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Publications
(* Authorship determined alphabetically; † Undergraduate Coauthor/Mentee)
44. Couper, LI, TJ Sipin, S Sambado, Z Rennie, KM Shanebeck, KP Lyberger, PA Collender, V Ngo, JV Remais & AJ MacDonald. Climate warming and urbanization may expand dengue transmission risk in California. Submitted to Lancet Planetary Health. Online version.
43. Mbaoma, O, SM Thomas, AJ MacDonald & C Beierkuhnlein. Evolving roles of native vector mosquitoes in pathogen transmission across Europe in the face of environmental change. Submitted to PLOS Pathogens.
42. Shanebeck, KM, TJ Sipin, A Hazel, S Hopkins & AJ MacDonald. Vector-borne and zoonotic disease risk twice as high for marginalized groups in high-income countries. In revisions from Nature.
41. Singleton, AL, AG Lescano, AJ MacDonald, L Mandle, TJ Sipin, KS Martel, CV Munayco, EDR Carrera, GA Choque, ASM Bautista, SP Luby & EA Mordecai. Highway paving dramatically increased dengue transmission in the Amazon. In review following revisions at Nature Sustainability. Online version.
40. Hopkins, SH, A Hazel, J Pourtois, AJ Chamberlin, Z Gajewski, I Harryman, SH Sokolow, AJ MacDonald, N Nova, A Ahmed, J Andiani, A Emerson, N Febriani, NL Finley, Q Izza, A Miller, I Sartika, K Webb, S Burza, IZ Siregar, Y Setiawan, IJ Jones, ZYC Liu & GA De Leo. Health and livelihood support buffered rural communities and protected rainforests during the COVID-19 pandemic. In review following revisions at Lancet Planetary Health.
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39. MacDonald, AJ, TJ Sipin & K Ring. Spillover risk for yellow fever virus is amplified by forest-urban interface in the Amazon, 2025. Biology Letters, 21(12):20250555. Online version.
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38. Sambado, S, G Dayton, KM Zilliacus, S Dewees, AJ MacDonald & CJ Briggs, 2025. Wildfire disturbance and ecological cascades: teasing apart the direct and indirect effects of fire on tick populations. Journal of Applied Ecology, 62(12):3421-3435. Online version.
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37. Sambado, S, T Sipin, Z Rennie, AE Larsen, J Cunningham, A Quandt, D Sousa & AJ MacDonald, 2025. The paradoxical impact of drought on West Nile virus risk: insights from long-term ecological data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 292:20251365. Online version.
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36. Quandt, A, D Sousa, G Bartel, W Dunbar, J Keiser, S Marschalk, A Perez, M Williams, AE Larsen & AJ MacDonald, 2025. Groundwater recharge as an adaptive response to flood events in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Water Policy, 27(8):785–803. Online version.
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35. Larsen, AE, D Sousa, A Quandt & AJ MacDonald, 2025. Weathering the storm: precipitation whiplash has limited effects on agricultural production and pesticide use in California. Environmental Research Letters, 20:094003. Online version.
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34. MacDonald, AJ, D Sousa, A Quandt, S Sambado, TJ Sipin, Z Rennie & AE Larsen, 2025. Extreme climate whiplash events drive divergent responses of mosquito-borne disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nexus, 4:8, pgaf223. Online version.
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33. Sambado, S, A Sparkman, A Swei, AJ MacDonald, HS Young, J Salomon, A Crews, K Ring, S Copeland & CJ Briggs, 2025. Climate-driven variation in the phenology of juvenile Ixodes pacificus on lizard hosts. Parasites & Vectors, 18(141). Online version.
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32. Lee, B, S Sambado, DN Farrant, A Boser, K Ring, D Hyon, AE Larsen & AJ MacDonald, 2025. Novel bat-monitoring dataset reveals targeted foraging with agricultural and pest control implications. Ecology and Evolution, 15:e70819. Online version.
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31. Sambado, S, AJ MacDonald, A Swei & CJ Briggs, 2024. Climate associated variation in the within-season dynamics of juvenile ticks in California. Ecosphere, 15(11):e70064. Online version.
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30. MacDonald, AJ, D Hyon, S Sambado, K Ring & A Boser, 2024. Remote sensing of temperature-dependent mosquito and viral traits predicts field surveillance-based disease risk. Ecology, 105(11):e4420. Online version.
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29. Skinner, EB, CK Glidden, AJ MacDonald & EA Mordecai, 2023. Human footprint is associated with shifts in assemblages of major vector-borne diseases. Nature Sustainability, 6(6), 652-661. Online version.
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28. Sokolow, SH, N Nova, IJ Jones, CL Wood, KD Lafferty, A Garchitorena, SR Hopkins, AJ Lund, AJ MacDonald, C LeBoa, AJ Peel, EA Mordecai, ME Howard, JC Buck, D Lopez-Carr, M Barry, M Bonds & GA De Leo, 2022. Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(11):e870-e879. Online version.
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27. MacDonald, AJ, S McComb & S Sambado, 2022. Linking Lyme disease ecology and epidemiology: reservoir host identity, not richness, determines tick infection and human disease in California. Environmental Research Letters, 17(11):114041. Online version.
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26. Hopkins, SR, KD Lafferty, CL Wood, SH Olson, JC Buck, M Childs, GA de Leo, KJ Fiorella, J Fornberg, A Garchitorena, IJ Jones, AM Kuris, LH Kwong, C LeBoa, AE Leon, AJ Lund, AJ MacDonald, DCG Metz, N Nova, AJ Peel, JV Remais, TE Stewart Merrill, M Wilson, MH Bonds, AP Dobson, D Lopez Carr, ME Howard, L Mandle & SH Sokolow, 2022. Diversity and evidence gaps among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(8):e694-e705. Online version.
*Check out the case study website associated with this paper here! |
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25. Hopkins, SR, IJ Jones, JC Buck, C Leboa, LH Kwong, K Jacobsen, C Rickards, AJ Lund, N Nova, AJ MacDonald, M Lambert-Peck, G De Leo & SH Sokolow, 2022. Environmental persistence of the world's most burdensome infectious and parasitic diseases. Frontiers in Public Health, 10:892366. Online version.
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24. Boser, A, D Sousa, AE Larsen & AJ MacDonald, 2021. Micro-climate to macro-risk: Mapping fine scale differences in mosquito-borne disease risk using remote sensing. Environmental Research Letters, 16:124014. Online version.
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23. MacDonald, AJ & EA Mordecai, 2021. Response to Valle and Zorello Laporta: Clarifying the use of instrumental variable methods to understand the effects of environmental change on infectious disease transmission. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 105(6):1456-1459. Online version.
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22. Athni, TS, MS Shocket, L Couper, N Nova, IR Caldwell, JM Caldwell, JN Childress, ML Childs, GA De Leo, D Kirk, AJ MacDonald, K Olivarius, DG Pickel, S Roberts, OC Winokur, HS Young, J Cheng, EA Grant, PM Kurzner, S Kyaw, BJ Lin, RC Lopez, DS Massihpour, EC Olsen, M Roache, A Ruiz, EA Schultz, M Shafat, RL Spencer, N Bharti & EA Mordecai, 2021. The influence of vector-borne disease on human history: socio-ecological mechanisms. Ecology Letters, 24(4):829-846. Online version.
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21. Nova, N, ER Deyle, MS Shocket, AJ MacDonald, ML Childs, M Rypdal, G Sugihara and EA Mordecai, 2021. Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics. Ecology Letters, 24(3): 415-425. Online version.
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20. Couper, LI, AJ MacDonald & EA Mordecai, 2021. Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence. Global Change Biology, 27(4):738-754. Online version.
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19. Hopkins, SR, SH Sokolow, GA De Leo, JC Buck, IJ Jones, L Kwong, C LeBoa, AJ Lund, AJ MacDonald, N Nova, SH Olson, AJ Peel, CL Wood & KD Lafferty, 2021. How to identify win—win interventions that benefit human health and conservation. Nature Sustainability, 4:298-304. Online version.
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18. Kain, M, AJ MacDonald, EA Mordecai & L Mandle. Land-use planning for health: Tradeoffs and nonlinearities govern how land-use change impacts vector-borne disease risk. bioRxiv, submitted June 2021, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.09.447801. Online version.
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17. Jones, IJ, AJ MacDonald, S Hopkins, A Lund, Z Yung-Chun Liu, NI Fawzi, MP Purba, K Fankhauser, M Nirmala, AG Blundell, A Emerson, J Jennings, L Gaffikin, M Barry, D Lopez-Carr, K Webb, GA De Leo & SH Sokolow, 2020. Improving rural health care reduces illegal logging and conserves carbon in a tropical forest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(45):28515-28524. Online version.
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16. MacDonald, AJ, S McComb, C O'Neill, KA Padgett & AE Larsen, 2020. Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology, seasonal host-seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California. Global Change Biology, 26:5459-5474. Online version.
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15. Small, C, AJ MacDonald & D Sousa. Spatial network connectivity of population and development in the USA: Implications for disease transmission. arXiv, submitted April 2020, arXiv:2004.14237. Online version.
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14. MacDonald, AJ, SB Weinstein, KE O’Connor & A Swei, 2020. Circulation of tick-borne spirochetes in tick and small mammal communities in Santa Barbara County, California, USA. Journal of Medical Entomology, 57(4):1293-1300. Online version.
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13. Larsen, AE, DN Farrant & AJ MacDonald, 2020. Spatiotemporal overlap of pesticide use and species richness hotspots in California. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 289(2020):106741. Online version.
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12. Vandermeer, J, I Armbrecht, A de la Mora, KK Ennis, DJ Gonthier, Z Hajian-Forooshani, H-Y Hsieh, A Iverson, D Jackson, S Jha, E Jiménez-Soto, G Lopez-Bautista, A Larsen, K Li, H Liere, AJ MacDonald, L Marin, KA Mathis, I Monagan, J Morris, T Ong, GL Pardee, IS Rivera, K Williams-Guillen, S Yitbarek, S Uno, A Zemenick, SM Philpott and I Perfecto, 2019. The community ecology of herbivore regulation in an agroecosystem: Lessons from complex systems. BioScience, 69(12):974-996. Online version.
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11. MacDonald, AJ, & EA Mordecai, 2019. Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(44):22212-22218. Online version.
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10. MacDonald, AJ, C O’Neill, MH Yoshimizu, KA Padgett & AE Larsen, 2019. Tracking seasonal activity of the western blacklegged tick across California. Journal of Applied Ecology, 56:2562-2573. Online version.
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9. MacDonald, AJ, AE Larsen, & AJ Plantinga, 2019. Missing the people for the trees: Identifying coupled natural-human system feedbacks driving the ecology of Lyme disease. Journal of Applied Ecology, 56:354-364. Online version.
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8. MacDonald, AJ, 2018. Abiotic and habitat drivers of tick vector abundance, diversity, phenology and human encounter risk in southern California. PLOS One, 13(7):e0201665. Online version.
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7. Anderson S, R Bart, M Kennedy, AJ MacDonald, M Moritz, AJ Plantinga, C Tague & M Wibbenmeyer, 2018. The dangers of disaster-driven responses to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 8:651-653. Online version.
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6. MacDonald, AJ, DW Hyon†, A McDaniels†, KE O’Connor, A Swei, & CJ Briggs, 2018. Risk of vector tick exposure initially increases then declines through time in response to wildfire in California. Ecosphere, 9(5):e02227. Online version.
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5. MacDonald, AJ, DW Hyon†, JB Brewington III†, KE O’Connor, A Swei, & CJ Briggs, 2017. Lyme disease risk in southern California: abiotic and environmental drivers of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) density and infection prevalence with Borrelia burgdorferi. Parasites & Vectors, 10:7. Online version.
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4. MacDonald, AJ, & CJ Briggs, 2016. Truncated seasonal activity patterns of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus) in central and southern California. Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases, 7: 234-242. Online version.
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3. Larsen, AE, BT Hendrickson†, N Dedeic†, & AJ MacDonald, 2015. Taken as a given: Evaluating the accuracy of remotely sensed crop data. Agricultural Systems, 141: 121-125. Online version.
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2. *Larsen AE, *AJ MacDonald, & *AJ Plantinga, 2014. Lyme disease risk influences human settlement in the wildland-urban interface: Evidence from a longitudinal analysis of counties in the northeastern United States. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 91(4): 747-755. Online version.
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1. MacDonald AJ, D Jackson, & K Zemenick†, 2013. Indirect effects of a fungal entomopathogen, Lecanicillium lecanii (Hypocreales: Clavicipitaceae), on a coffee agroecosystem ant community. Environmental Entomology, 42(4): 658-667. Online version.
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Book Chapters:
1. Shocket, MS, CB Anderson, JM Caldwell, ML Childs, LI Couper, S Han, M Harris, ME Howard, MP Kain, AJ MacDonald, N Nova & EA Mordecai, 2021. Environmental drivers of vector-borne disease. In Population biology of vector-borne diseases, Oxford University Press. Online version.
Data:
6. MacDonald, AJ (2025). Code and data for forest fragmentation and yellow fever spillover. Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17338528
5. MacDonald, AJ (2025). Code and data for: Extreme climate whiplash events drive divergent responses of mosquito-borne disease. Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16044853
4. MacDonald, AJ (2024). Data and Code For: Remote Sensing of Temperature-Dependent Mosquito and Viral Traits Predicts Field Surveillance-Based Disease Risk. Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13344415
3. MacDonald, AJ, O'Neill C, Yoshimizu MH, Padgett KA, Larsen AE (2019). Data from: Tracking seasonal activity of the western blacklegged tick across California. Dryad Digital Repository, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8769t44
2. MacDonald, AJ (2019). Data from: Abiotic and habitat drivers of tick vector abundance, diversity, phenology and human encounter risk in southern California. Dryad Digital Repository. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6g33308
1. MacDonald, AJ, Larsen AE, Plantinga AJ (2018). Data from: Missing the people for the trees: identifying coupled natural-human system feedbacks driving the ecology of Lyme disease. Dryad Digital Repository. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p7t9289
Published Conference Abstracts:
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1. MacDonald AJ & EA Mordecai. “Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing.” Planetary Health Alliance Annual Meeting, September 2019. Online abstract.
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